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Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Raised to Over 90% Ahead of Key Deadline

Key Takeaways

Several major asset managers have updated their S-1 filings for spot Bitcoin ETFs ahead of the SEC’s January 10 decision deadline. Bitcoin surpassed $45,000 for the first time since April as optimism builds around potential ETF approval.

Filings Submitted Ahead of Deadline

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) deadline for companies to submit revised S-1 forms for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) passed on Monday. All issuers, except Hashdex, submitted updated filings. Grayscale filed an S-3 form.

Notably, BlackRock, Ark Invest/21Shares, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie all updated their applications.

The SEC now has until January 10 to render a decision on Ark Invest and 21Shares’ Bitcoin ETF proposal (@JSeyff).

Likelihood of Approval Rises

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes the likelihood of a U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF approval is now over 90%. Meanwhile, Polymarket estimates the chances at 84%.

If approved, the ETFs could potentially start trading as early as January 11, according to analysts. The SEC is reportedly only requesting minor changes and a commission vote may occur on Wednesday.


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