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BitMEX Co-Founder Predicts 20% to 30% Bitcoin Correction in Early March

Key Takeaways:

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin’s price will correct by 20% to 30% in early March.

Potential “Vicious Washout”

Hayes refers to the potential downturn as a “vicious washout” targeting inexperienced crypto investors. The correction could intensify to 30% to 40% if driven by Bitcoin ETFs propelling the price near its all-time high of $70,000.

Factors Triggering a Correction

Hayes cites three factors in March that may influence the market:

  • A possible decline in the Reverse Repo Program balance, which Hayes links to liquidity shifts.
  • The Bank Term Funding Program renewal decision on March 12, significant for banks needing cash swaps.
  • A potential Federal Reserve rate cut at the March 20 meeting, affecting dollar liquidity expectations.

Trading Advice

Hayes plans to hedge against the downturn with Bitcoin puts and advises traders to approach cautiously. Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Hayes remains long-term bullish, believing the market will stabilize by late March. [1]


The information comes from Hayes’ detailed post for crypto traders amid the current bull market. [2] A dovish Fed signaling three rate cuts in 2024 could pump Bitcoin’s price again. [3]


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