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Odds of a Spot Bitcoin ETF Approval This Week Rise as Filings Amended

Key Takeaways:

  • Bloomberg analysts see a greater than 90% chance of U.S. approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
  • The optimism comes after updated filings from ETF providers, with a significant shift from Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who gives a 5% chance of rejection.
  • In contrast, Polymarket users wagered about $500,000, predicting the approval could be delayed or denied, showing less optimism with odds falling from last week’s 90%.

Anticipation Rises

The crypto market is highly anticipative of the SEC’s decisions this week, which could lead to the launch of the first spot bitcoin ETFs aimed at professional investors in the U.S.A regulated spot bitcoin ETF is expected to attract substantial demand and can be a major catalyst for bitcoin.

Filings Amended

Notable companies such as BlackRock, Grayscale, Valkyrie, ARK 21Shares, Invesco, VanEck, WisdomTree, Pando Asset AG, and Franklin Templeton have made updated 19b-4 filings. Over a dozen applicants are competing to launch the first spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.Recent amended filings, including both 19b-4 and S-1 forms, aim to address feedback from the SEC, and both are required to receive SEC’s approval before ETFs can launch.

There are rumors and expectations based on sources close to the matter that the SEC could approve spot bitcoin ETFs for multiple firms soon. Discussions between investment management firms, stock exchanges, and the SEC regarding final wording changes on filings for spot Bitcoin ETFs may signal imminent approval.

BlackRock anticipates approval of its spot bitcoin ETF application by Wednesday.

For more updates follow @jacqmelinek on Twitter.


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